AI Resilience Five-dimension framework assessing company positioning for AI disruption

AI Resilience is the only LLM-scored module in the framework. Claude Sonnet evaluates each company across five dimensions using earnings transcripts, thesis narratives, financial data, and peer context. Scores are calibrated against reference anchors to prevent drift.

Dimensions & Weights

DimensionWeightWhat It Measures
Revenue Catalyst 25% Degree to which AI directly drives incremental revenue. Direct AI product sales, AI-enabled upsell, AI-driven customer acquisition.
Moat Durability 25% Switching costs, data moats, network effects, system-of-record status. How defensible is the business against AI-native competitors?
Operating Leverage 15% AI's impact on margin improvement, revenue-per-employee, cost structure. Can the company use AI to scale without proportional cost increases?
Pricing Resilience 20% Vulnerability to seat compression, pricing disruption, commodity risk. Will AI force price reductions or enable premium pricing?
Obsolescence Shield 15% Protection from AI-native replacement. Regulatory barriers, physical infrastructure requirements, domain expertise moats.

Scoring Methodology

Context Provided to LLM

The scoring prompt includes:

Calibration Anchors

Reference scores are provided in the prompt to ground the LLM's output. On a 1–5 scale (mapped to 0–100):

CompanyTypeRev CatMoatOp LevPricingObsol
PLTRSoftware54433
U (Unity)Software22211
ORCLSoftware35344
CEGInfrastructure55455
NEEInfrastructure34345
BEInfrastructure32222

Scale mapping: 1→20, 2→40, 3→60, 4→80, 5→100

Scoring Discipline

Constraints

Soft cap at 92: scores above 92 require identified vulnerabilities in the rationale. Every dimension must cite at least one vulnerability. This prevents score inflation from overly optimistic LLM outputs.

Infrastructure Company Interpretation

For companies in Energy, Utilities, Materials, Industrials, and Real Estate, the dimensions are reinterpreted:

DimensionInfrastructure Meaning
Revenue Catalyst% revenue from AI/data center customers
Moat DurabilityContracted backlog depth, supply constraints, switching costs
Operating LeverageExecution track record, margin expansion from AI demand
Pricing ResilienceSupply-constraint pricing power
Obsolescence ShieldSecular demand duration (10–20yr structural theme)
Market Context

US data center power demand is projected to 3x to 134.4 GW by 2030, with $720B in grid spending and 7–15 year capital cycles. Infrastructure companies are scored against this structural backdrop.

Composite & Labels

composite = Σ(dimension_score × weight) for all 5 dimensions
LabelScore RangeMeaning
Fortress≥80AI is a major tailwind; business model is strengthened by AI adoption
Defensible≥60Well-positioned with manageable risks; AI is net positive
Moderate≥40Mixed picture; some AI benefit but meaningful vulnerabilities
At-Risk≥20Significant AI disruption risk; business model under pressure
Vulnerable<20High probability of AI-driven disruption to core business

Impact on Conviction

AI Resilience flows into conviction scoring in two ways:

  1. Thematic dimension — the composite score is a direct component of the Thematic dimension
  2. Catalyst penalty modifier — AI resilience score continuously dampens or amplifies cross-signal penalties on the thesis conviction component. Higher AI resilience = smaller penalties (0.6x at 100), lower AI resilience = larger penalties (1.5x at 0).
  3. Proof Burden — for software-adjacent companies with low AI scores (<70 on revenue_catalyst or pricing_resilience), a conviction cap and penalty is applied unless growth evidence justifies the position. See Conviction Score.